Scenarios for net zero: From global consistency to sectoral and geographical circumstances

Nov 23, 2023 | 1:30 PM - 3:00 PM

Finance & econ instruments Reaching net zero Data & tracking

Description

Climate change mitigation scenarios are a key input to target setting, transition planning and alignment assessments undertaken by state and non-state actors, such as sub-national authorities, businesses, financial institutions and investors. While these scenarios must be consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goal and GHG emissions objectives, they also need to reflect specificities and capacities in different sectors and geographies. Building on the findings of new OECD analysis, this session will present a framework to assess the consistency of mitigation scenarios with the Paris Agreement, and discuss the challenges in scope and granularity of currently frequently used scenarios, as well as underlying assumptions and uncertainties. The session aims to enhance understanding on opportunities for policy makers and non-state actors to contribute to improved use of climate change mitigation scenarios.

Moderated by

Marcia Rocha

OECD

Team Lead

https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcia-rocha-4aa81566/

Speakers

Bruno Campos

Ministry of the Environment of Chile

Coordinator of the National Foresight System

https://cl.linkedin.com/in/bruno-campos-8b1a3539

George Hussey

Irish Climate Change Advisory Council

Secretariat Manager

https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-hussey-92748617/

Alexandros Katsiamboulas

TITAN Cement Group

ESG Performance Director

https://gr.linkedin.com/in/alexandros-katsiamboulas-a9816317

Jolien Noels

OECD

Policy Analyst, Finance for Climate Action

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jolien-noels/

Coline Pouille

OECD

Policy Analyst, Climate Quantitative Assessments

www.linkedin.com/in/coline-pouille-2a9a77135

Joeri Rogelj

Grantham Institute, Imperial College

Director of Research

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joerirogelj/

Find out more Related resources

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, governments and economic actors have increasingly been setting greenhouse gas emissions reduction or net zero targets. Amidst risks of delayed action and greenwashing, there is need to understand whether climate related targets and transition plans are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Climate change mitigation scenarios can be used as inputs to design such targets and plans, and as benchmarks to assess progress towards them. In this context, this paper proposes criteria for selecting global climate change mitigation scenarios that can be considered consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goal and emissions objectives, based on state-of-the-art literature on climate science and mitigation scenarios.

Climate change mitigation scenarios are a key forward-looking input for a range of financial sector analyses and assessments. The inaccurate use of mitigation scenarios can, however, contribute to unintended incentives, environmental integrity concerns, and greenwashing risks. This paper aims to inform climate change mitigation scenario providers, financial sector participants and stakeholders, and climate policymakers on how they may contribute to improved use of scenarios for the purposes of target setting and alignment assessments in the financial sector. To do so, the paper analyses climate change mitigation scenarios currently used for these purposes, based on the following analytical dimensions: consistency with the Paris Agreement, practicality, and underlying assumptions.

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